Classic winter

Today dawned with the sound of a helicopter hovering over the North Side as part of the coverage of the Winter Classic hockey game. The Detroit Red Wings defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 6-4 outdoors at Wrigley Field before a crowd of more than 40,000. This is the second straight year the NHL staged a game on New Year's Day outdoors (last year's was in Buffalo). While I wasn't able to get a ticket, it's a lot of fun to watch these games. The Winter Classic tradition may be pushing college football bowls out of the spotlight on Jan. 1--the bowls are now so spread out and diluted that the first day of the year is just another day with a bunch of bowls.

I think my favorite part of the telecast today was the presence of The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore. The broadcasters play up the impact of the elements a bit during these games (today it was a mild 30 degrees and overcast, though windy), but Cantore makes weather even more interesting. He was able to reference the "altocumulus" clouds while sitting on top of the centerfield scoreboard.

I heard a rumor that the NHL made snow to fill up the area around the rink but within the ballfield; I'm guessing this makes the Winter Classic more wintry. The truth is there's hardly any actual snow on the ground right now and we are in one of those typical Chicago phases of limited snow and cold temps.

Heisman hype

Last year, Central Florida running back Kevin Smith rushed for 2,567 yards and fell just short of Barry Sanders' single-season NCAA rushing record of 2,628 yards. Yet Smith finished eighth in the balloting for the Heisman Trophy, which ultimately went to Tim Tebow of Florida. Two years before, Reggie Bush of Southern California captured the trophy by rushing for nearly 1,000 fewer yards than Smith.

Winning the Heisman Trophy correlates now with team success more than at any point during the past 25 years, according to a study by the patternless area. Just three of the past 27 Heisman finalists, 11 percent, are from schools that finished outside the top 15 in the final Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings. Between 1983 and 2000, 32 percent of finalists were "outsiders" from beyond the top 15 (using the AP poll between 1983 and 1997). The heyday of the Heisman outsider was from 1985 to 1990, when 42 percent of finalists came from less-successful teams or even from outside Division I-A.

Despite Smith's omission in 2007, the four-finalist Heisman field included one outsider: Darren McFadden of Arkansas. The only other outsiders since 2001 are Brady Quinn of Notre Dame (2004) and Larry Fitzgerald of Pittsburgh (2003). This year only three players have been deemed Heisman finalists--Tim Tebow of Florida, Sam Bradford of Oklahoma and Colt McCoy of Texas--and they are from the top three teams in the nation.

Heisman history is dotted with players who came from relatively obscure programs but made it to Manhattan's Downtown Athletic Club as finalists: Tim Couch of Kentucky in 1998, Randy Moss of Marshall in 1997, Troy Davis of Iowa State in 1996, Marshall Faulk of San Diego State in 1992 and 1993. Three outsiders have won the trophy in the past 25 years: Ricky Williams of Texas in 1998, Ty Detmer of Brigham Young in 1990 and Bo Jackson of Auburn in 1985. Two finalists weren't even playing for Division I-A schools when they were invited: Steve McNair of Alcorn State in 1994 and Gordon Lockbaum of Holy Cross in 1987. Obscure players like Shawn Moore of Virginia (1990), Anthony Thompson of Indiana (1989) and Paul Palmer of Temple (1986) made it to New York.

Even as the Internet and cable television have made it easier to follow college football, the pool of potential Heisman candidates has narrowed. Rarely do players come out of nowhere like Sanders did in 1988, or Faulk in 1992, and if they do, like Kevin Smith, they are mostly ignored. Why?

-The BCS has focused all attention on schools in the big six major conferences: the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pacific 10 and Southeastern. This year, Utah and Boise State have gone unbeaten and only Utah scraped into a BCS bowl. Boise State isn't even playing after Christmas, facing Texas Christian in something called the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23. Back in 1984, Brigham Young, of the Western Athletic Conference, won the national title by beating Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. Nearly half the teams in the grouping formerly known as Division I-A aren't even competing for the national title now.

-The media like to reward themselves. Heisman prognostications arrive in mid-summer, and the forecasters don't like to admit they were wrong when someone emerges in October.

-As expansive as the TV coverage is, few people watch the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday night games that showcase lesser known conferences. Many sports fans are following baseball on those nights early in the football season.

-Widespread analysis and coverage derails the hopes of anomalies like B.J. Symons of Texas Tech, who threw for more than 5,000 yards in 2003. It's easier to dismiss players as "products of a system" rather than inherently talented. Analysts also seem more like to take this tack now, though I'm not sure why. Back in 1989, when Andre Ware won the Heisman at Houston, few decried his choice even though he was a product of the new-fangled Run and Shoot offense.

-The criteria for the Heisman Trophy have changed over time. Already murky at best, the definition of the "most outstanding player" has evolved to mean the best player on the best team. Back in the 1980s, stats seemed to matter more and team success not as much.

The Heisman already is inherently flawed since it 99 percent of the time awards players from three positions: quarterback, running back and wide receiver. In recent years, it's nearly all quarterbacks. This year, voters have a chance to combine the best of the '80s with the 2000s approach and pick Oklahoma's Bradford, whose jaw-dropping numbers combine with team success.

Other observations: Back in the late '80s and early '90s there were a lot more defensive players in the hunt for the Heisman. Names like Steve Emtman and Marvin Jones made the top 10 in voting. Charles Woodson of Michigan, of course, somehow won the Heisman as a defensive back in 1997.

-Lockbaum was a two-way player, a tailback and defensive back.

-A lot of winners were total washouts in the NFL: Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Rashaan Salaam, Gino Torretta to name a few.

Bird day

About two hours before this photo was taken, a peregrine falcon alighted on one of the gothic towers at St. Columbanus Church on Chicago's South Side.

Barry O

There's no doubt I'm going through election withdrawal along with thousands of others. I still make feeble visits to andrewsullivan.com and fivethirtyeight.com, mostly out of habit. I've pretty much stopped visiting talkingpointsmemo.com and slate.com for now. I am still following Sarah Palin's every move however. Her campaign for 2012 is going so well, what with the coherent interviews and all.

Anyway, I have uploaded several photos to flickr. This is not our best work--we may need a camera upgrade (or at least knowledge of the nighttime settings)--but I think these capture a bit more of the event. I still can't get over the scene on Michigan Avenue that night, especially when I'm driving in that vicinity now. Pure magic.

Making history

The Election Night Rally in Grant Park, of course, will be one of the most memorable nights of our lives. It still hasn't sunk in yet, though.

We rode our bikes down to the vicinity of the park, arriving at about 8:30. After a brief struggle, we found a chain link construction fence to latch up to near the intersection of Monroe and Wabash. There was a throng walking toward Grant Park, but the crowd mostly was subdued. It was mix of young and old, white and black. One thing I will always remember was a guy on a cellphone who loudly said "He won Ohio!" to anyone nearby. A round of cheers and applause went up. At this point, we already knew Obama had won Pennsylvania--a major development--but, as any regular fivethirtyeight.com reader will tell you, Ohio was far from certain (and of course the Buckeye State is meaningful to me). An Ohio win plus Pennsylvania virtually assured Obama of the presidency.

We kept making our way toward the park, passing through three security checkpoints. There was something a little surreal about it. The combination of the loudspeakers echoing across the park and off the row of buildings on Michigan Avenue, combined with a fairly quiet crowd, created an eerie feeling. Not to mention the unseasonable temperatures in the 60s. One doesn't often gather with this many people unless it is for a sporting event or concert, and fans of sports and music are quite boisterous.

We made our way to an area probably 300 yards from the stage. CNN was playing on a big video board, and whoops of delight went up whenever a state was called for Obama. At about five minutes to 10, CNN called Virginia for Obama, who by now had a huge lead. It sent the crowd into a frenzy. At 10, the polls closed on the West Coast and CNN declared Obama victorious. The crowd reached another level of jubilation, with people hugging and crying (the picture above is from just after the announcement). It was shocking to see the word "president" next to Obama's name and photo, as shocking as learning of any other major world-changing event. It's strange because we knew he would probably win last night. It just wasn't something I really allowed myself to imagine after the disappointments of the past eight years. And to think that this is the same guy I was standing in a South Side pantry with about two years ago.

The time between 10 and 11 was mostly spent listening to music and watching the video board. (One song I remember was "Signed, Sealed, Delivered.") CNN provided some analysis, and McCain delivered his concession speech. Many in the crowd graciously clapped for sections of McCain's speech. A few started singing "Hey Hey Goodbye." (And after all of the Republican hit jobs, smear tactics and dishonesty, who could blame them.)

After an invocation, pledge of allegiance and the national anthem, Obama took the stage with his family. He delivered a speech that was very serious in tone. A speech that didn't self-reference his remarkable achievement but rather focused on the steep challenges that we face. The inspiring oratory prompted more tears and cheers.

We could see the runway that jutted from the stage, Obama looking like a miniature person in the distance. After the speech, the Obama and Biden families appeared together and waved to the crowd. Most everyone in the audience stayed until after the stage was cleared.

We made our way to the exits and walked toward Michigan Avenue, which was awash in revelers. It was a very peaceful celebration with everyone lining the streets, chanting, cheering and taking pictures. By 1, we had ridden all the way back north. The entire evening was such a rare opportunity, and I'm thankful that we happened to be in the right place at the right time to be a part of it.

Organizing hope

I'd like to note that one reason President-Elect Obama won--and captured traditionally red states--is because of his and his campaign's effectiveness at community organizing, the old job Republicans mocked at their convention.

Vote rocking

To: Everyone in Swing States and Red States
From: Everyone in Blue States

Please vote tomorrow. And then tell a bunch of other people to vote.

Thanks.