Heisman hype

Last year, Central Florida running back Kevin Smith rushed for 2,567 yards and fell just short of Barry Sanders' single-season NCAA rushing record of 2,628 yards. Yet Smith finished eighth in the balloting for the Heisman Trophy, which ultimately went to Tim Tebow of Florida. Two years before, Reggie Bush of Southern California captured the trophy by rushing for nearly 1,000 fewer yards than Smith.

Winning the Heisman Trophy correlates now with team success more than at any point during the past 25 years, according to a study by the patternless area. Just three of the past 27 Heisman finalists, 11 percent, are from schools that finished outside the top 15 in the final Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings. Between 1983 and 2000, 32 percent of finalists were "outsiders" from beyond the top 15 (using the AP poll between 1983 and 1997). The heyday of the Heisman outsider was from 1985 to 1990, when 42 percent of finalists came from less-successful teams or even from outside Division I-A.

Despite Smith's omission in 2007, the four-finalist Heisman field included one outsider: Darren McFadden of Arkansas. The only other outsiders since 2001 are Brady Quinn of Notre Dame (2004) and Larry Fitzgerald of Pittsburgh (2003). This year only three players have been deemed Heisman finalists--Tim Tebow of Florida, Sam Bradford of Oklahoma and Colt McCoy of Texas--and they are from the top three teams in the nation.

Heisman history is dotted with players who came from relatively obscure programs but made it to Manhattan's Downtown Athletic Club as finalists: Tim Couch of Kentucky in 1998, Randy Moss of Marshall in 1997, Troy Davis of Iowa State in 1996, Marshall Faulk of San Diego State in 1992 and 1993. Three outsiders have won the trophy in the past 25 years: Ricky Williams of Texas in 1998, Ty Detmer of Brigham Young in 1990 and Bo Jackson of Auburn in 1985. Two finalists weren't even playing for Division I-A schools when they were invited: Steve McNair of Alcorn State in 1994 and Gordon Lockbaum of Holy Cross in 1987. Obscure players like Shawn Moore of Virginia (1990), Anthony Thompson of Indiana (1989) and Paul Palmer of Temple (1986) made it to New York.

Even as the Internet and cable television have made it easier to follow college football, the pool of potential Heisman candidates has narrowed. Rarely do players come out of nowhere like Sanders did in 1988, or Faulk in 1992, and if they do, like Kevin Smith, they are mostly ignored. Why?

-The BCS has focused all attention on schools in the big six major conferences: the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pacific 10 and Southeastern. This year, Utah and Boise State have gone unbeaten and only Utah scraped into a BCS bowl. Boise State isn't even playing after Christmas, facing Texas Christian in something called the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23. Back in 1984, Brigham Young, of the Western Athletic Conference, won the national title by beating Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. Nearly half the teams in the grouping formerly known as Division I-A aren't even competing for the national title now.

-The media like to reward themselves. Heisman prognostications arrive in mid-summer, and the forecasters don't like to admit they were wrong when someone emerges in October.

-As expansive as the TV coverage is, few people watch the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday night games that showcase lesser known conferences. Many sports fans are following baseball on those nights early in the football season.

-Widespread analysis and coverage derails the hopes of anomalies like B.J. Symons of Texas Tech, who threw for more than 5,000 yards in 2003. It's easier to dismiss players as "products of a system" rather than inherently talented. Analysts also seem more like to take this tack now, though I'm not sure why. Back in 1989, when Andre Ware won the Heisman at Houston, few decried his choice even though he was a product of the new-fangled Run and Shoot offense.

-The criteria for the Heisman Trophy have changed over time. Already murky at best, the definition of the "most outstanding player" has evolved to mean the best player on the best team. Back in the 1980s, stats seemed to matter more and team success not as much.

The Heisman already is inherently flawed since it 99 percent of the time awards players from three positions: quarterback, running back and wide receiver. In recent years, it's nearly all quarterbacks. This year, voters have a chance to combine the best of the '80s with the 2000s approach and pick Oklahoma's Bradford, whose jaw-dropping numbers combine with team success.

Other observations: Back in the late '80s and early '90s there were a lot more defensive players in the hunt for the Heisman. Names like Steve Emtman and Marvin Jones made the top 10 in voting. Charles Woodson of Michigan, of course, somehow won the Heisman as a defensive back in 1997.

-Lockbaum was a two-way player, a tailback and defensive back.

-A lot of winners were total washouts in the NFL: Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Rashaan Salaam, Gino Torretta to name a few.